exited nov-dec long USD-INR

TP done on nov-dec long USD-INR
Nov exited at 49.3125 (gain of 32.5 paise)
Dec exited at 49.5450 (gain of 32.75 paise)

long usd-re;short chana

Bought Dec.$-re at current level 49.2175
Stop 1.5 paise below day`s low of 49.1050

Bought Nov. $-re at current level 48.9875
Stop 1.5 paise below day`s low of 48.8650

Gold. stay away,

Sell Dec chana @ current levels of 3539
TP: 3400
Stop: 1 Re.above recent 3569 high

stops hit but TP`s also happened

Our stops were triggered in USD-INR and Jeera(3T). But those were more than compensated
by Gain in Gold contract (1kg) . Our gold TP was triggered yesterday Indeed a fantastic trade.
as we captured the whole up move from 26536 to 26881

However, on this diwali we remain on sidelines as gold can mover either ways depending on European outcome Tomorrow. Also $/re is closed for next two days. Which means India gold can open Gap up/ down on Friday.

Our USD-INR view for rupee to weaken is still intact. INR is just moving on Euro news, fluctuations.

Trade for the day :- (intention to recoup yesterday`s stops)

Buy Nov $/re at current level of 49.9375 
Stop: 49.75

Buy Dec $/re at curent Level of  50.1650
Stop: 49.95

By end of day we expect some dollar demand to come in due to market closure.

adding long $ position

bought DEC USD-INR at present price 50.40
Stop: 50.25

Any dips in USD-INR are still a very good buy. Dec end target 52 (based on current scenario)

Existing Nov $/longs -- stops are still intact.

Gold Watching Dec gold for an exit. Its moved up almost immdiately after our advise of going Long.
Stop still  intact.

Jeera :-Stop is still intact.

adding one more $/re nov long

Bought one more nov $/re at current level 50.3575
stop: 50.05  --- Stop is very essential as market these days opens Gap down or Gap up
TP: Level will be seen later. as there is still a fair amount of dollar bulishness

Today it was bid up to 50.6275 after our Buy.
But some profit taking has happened ahead of the week-end.

USD headed higher

today USD-INR opened above. 50 level.
This  can potentially open the way right upto 52.

Bought Nov $/ Rupee @ curent price 50.3575
Stop loss: below yesterday low @ 50.05
TP: as of now sky is limit. Will communicate later.


Bought Dec Gold at  current level 26536 For potential breach of previous 26881 resistance
Stop loss: 26200

Amongst Chana, Jeera, Soyabean. Jeera looks to be a promising bet
based on technical chart. It has found a good support

Bought Dec Jeera @ current level of 15100
Stop loss: 14800
TP: 15700

corrective steps yield results

Inorder to recoup the morning stops losses, we have squared all the subsequent postions (one $/INR and two JPY/INR).

morning stop losses resulted in loss of : Rs.43 (-)

subsequent actions :
(1)short $/INR nov @ 50.05 squared at 49.8625 gain: Rs.18.75 (+)
(2)Short jpy/inr nov, dec @ 65.1050 and 65.23 squared at 64.84  & 65.1375 net gain: Rs. 357.50
Dec JPYINR has a huge bid-offer spread 64.9250-65.13

In coming days extreme volatility is expected.

Corrective steps after initial stop-losses have been right in re-assuming the balance.

stopped out as RBI has not ventured in yet

As per anticipation the RBI has not come to sell in dollars.
The trade was based on premise that RBI would step in and intervene.

Our trades are stopped out.

We play again from the short side as we feel the move is already done for the day.But this time not relying on central bank`s presence ,hence placing tight stops.

Sold Nov USD-INR @ 50.05
tight stop: 50.16
TP: atleast 30 paise lower.

We now also resort to JPY-INR pair to recoup the losses.

Sold JPY INR nov contract @ 65.1050
Stop : 66.12
TP : 64.30

Sold JPY INR dec contract @ 65.23
stop: 66.25
TP: 64.60

New trades $/INR,

Intra day view for USD-INR:-  Rupee to recover from current levels though not in a significant manner but good enough to give some quick gains. However the stops have to be a bit away to avoid whip-saws

Sell Nov at current level 49.850
Stop loss : 50.05

Sell Oct at current level 49.62
Stop loss : 49.85
Stop loss : above

Take gain levels : equivalent of difference between entry and Stop loss.

Stops are sligthly away as short term panic can set in


GOLD: Turning attractive .But yet on the sidelines before buying.

exits from gold and USD-IINR

In yesterday`s note we had mentioned that we were waiting to buy $/INR near day`s low

We could buy it at 48.95 , and  exited at 49.05 -- a Quick trade intended to cover up stops of prior two trades

We exited dec long gold at 26810 (on way down) as the strength in international prices diminshed.

Two Short EUR-INR positions are still maintained. 

new trade eur-inr

now adding to Oct EUR-INR short @ 67.61
Stop loss: 68.65
TP: 65.55

existing short of 67.64 continues


waiting to Buy USD-nr for October near day`s low

$/inr,jpy/inr,gold new trades

 Limit order to sell USD-INR remained unfilled and hence withdrawn.
Now Buying Oct USD-INR at current level of 49.1075
TP:  49.30
tight stop:  48.98 

Also Buying OCT JPY-INR at curent level of  63.7950
TP: 64.45
Tight Stop: 64.49

Also Buying DEC Gold at current level  of 26783
tight stop: 26673
TP: 27063

for the time being Physical buying of gold is seen to be less robust than gold ETF .

market actions and new ideas

today`s trades

1) long Oct $/INR @ 49.06     trade done (2 hours ago)
TP done at Current Levels: 49.32
Stop was at 48.90

2) Limit order to Sell again OCT contract at 49.48
Stop loss : 49.65
TP :  49.10

3) Exited Both Short OCT JPY-INR at current levels of  64.22

4) Placed Limit order to Sell OCT again at  65.23. The pair has turned bullish again
and can rally if 64.48 is breached on spot basis

eur-inr short

Sold OCT Eur-INR at 67.64 .
Stop loss 68.65
TP : 65.55

In our previous update (Oct 4) we had given 3 ideas. (long $/re, short Jpy/re , long gold).

Long $/re was exited through TP trigger. We continue to hold and monitor our JPY-INR shorts.

International Gold price at that time was $1624-- we had indicated $100 rise. $56 has already been achieved.(current price $1680) Basis this, we had given a recommendation to buy gold .
unfortunately due to extreme volatility in USD-INR, we were stopped out of Dec gold , But yet the target level of Rs.26733 has been visited today.

TP done on USD-INR

TP got done on October USD-INR long @ 49.60

thus exited Oct $-INR trade .

new trades

1)Adding on to JPY-INR shorts 

Oct JPY-INR currently at 64.30-64.3150
Sold @ 64.30 , stop loss at 65.01 . TP : 62.60

Earlier trade on JPY-INR @ 65.38 : continues to be watched


2) Oct USD-INR currently at 49.2825 - 49.2850
Bought USD-INR @ 49.2850 , stop loss at 49.11. TP:  @ 49.60
USD-INR :  The UPTREND (depreciation) is still intact, it has been behaving very erratically .Hence we have to place tight stops.The risk reward ratio is 1:1 because of fear of intervention on higher side
India is closed tomorrow. any overseas event will lead to a knee jerk reaction in USD-INR on Friday.
It might open up with a gap of 20-30 paise, that`s what we are targetting in this trade.

3) Gold . international price currently at 1624 $. good support found at 1540-1580 zone.
     Can potentially make base and rally 100$ from here.
  
 So, Bought Dec gold : at curent price 26112 Rs.
 stop Loss at international price $1580 /6 Rs. just below Oct price recent low of 25955 (as on 29-sept)
TP: at least recent high of  26,733