oct industrial output fell 5.1% y/y
but april-oct is +3.5% ...............taking refuge into this
positive amongst negatives .................short Jpy-inr dec two contracts at 67.66
stop 68.12
exited two fresh dec jpy-inr shorts at 67.21
(entry was at 67.50)
today JPY INR jan opened at 67.70 (our stop was at 67.73
JPY INR dec openied at 67.2475 (our stop was at 67.53)
To accomodate heighetened overnight volatility, stops were scaled up further 50 paise
and the positions are continued.
In view of the all important event , its better to stay away from dollar-Rupee, pound-rupee and
euro rupee. The trade may end +/- 1 rupee on Monday opening itself.
However, Looking at Indian central bank intervention in the past and with a opinion
that Monday may not be "That bad " after all the negativity, infact USD-INR may
open around 51.75. However shorting plain dollar rupee is riskier.
Thus instead of plain dollar-rupee sell, we do it through YEN-RUPEE. By adding on two more
Dec shorts At 67.50. with a Tight stop loss @ 67.75
Got stopped from eur-inr due to move in $-rupee in last half hour. the whole day it was idle !!
Eur-USD was idle but due to dollar-rupee got stopped in eur-inr
some big investment flows in pound took it higher vs.dollar thus stopping us out there too.
Now resorting to sell dollar again but changing currency pair:-
Sold JPY-Rupee Dec @ 67.03 Stop: 50 paise
Sold JPY-Rupee Jan @ 67.2325 Stop :50 paise
Sold dollar-Rupee DEC @ 52.0250 Stop: 16 paise
short Jan $/re @ 51.84
stop: 51.97
short Dec gbp-inr @ 80.5425
stop: 81
short Dec eur-inr @ 69.2650
stop: 69.7650
exited GBP inr shorts as below
GBP-INR
30-Nov-11 dec sell @ 81.77 EXITED @ 81.425 on 1-Dec-11
30-Nov-11 jan sell @ 81.8975 EXITED @ 81.6825 on 1-Dec-11
USD-INR
Initiated longs @ current level
DEC @ 51.9125 Stop: 51.61
JAN @ 52.13 Stop: 51.8275
exited long USDINR at a quick gain of 7-9 paise
Dec @ 52.57
Jan @ 52.78
feb @ 52.94
Look to re-enter from long side once again.
shorts in gbp-inr continue
Euro unable to withstand pressure.
Going long USD-INR
Dec @ 52.48 stop 52.20
Jan @ 52.7025 stop 52.40
Feb @ 52.86 stop: 52.67
Going Short GBP-INR
Dec @ 81.77 stop : 82.51
Jan @ 81.8975 stop : 82.73
Long Dec $/re @ 52.50 EXITED AT 52.75
Long Jan $/re @ 52.65 EXITED AT 52.8975
Long Dec eur/inr @ 70.66 EXITED AT 70.54
Long Dec jpy/inr @ 68.11 EXITED AT 68.19
Long Dec Jeera @ 13710 EXITED AT 13735
=================================
Now Short dec JPY-INR at 68.2050 stop : 68.56
Now Short dec EUR-INR at 70. 5975 stop: 71.01
Long dec gold at 28639 . Stop: 28443
51.30 to 52 was possible sell-off zone in USD-Rupee. as central bank intervention was expected with unknown quantums.
Now,
Long Dec $/re @ 52.50
Long Jan $/re @ 52.65
Long Dec eur/inr @ 70.66
Long Dec jpy/inr @ 68.11
10-20-30 paise stops would not help -- rather sure to get triggered with day close still in direction of view.
Go Long only if 50 paise stop loss is affordable. These days $-re is moving 1 rupee in 2 days. Intraday
high-low gap is 60-80 paise with both sides visited couple of times during the trading session.
Our blog of 20 October, 2011
USD headed higher
today USD-INR opened above. 50 level.
This can potentially open the way right upto 52.
......................CURRENT LEVEL : - 51.29
Our blog of 11 November, 2011
USD-INR,
nothing seems positive for the rupee at the moment.buy of dips is the only mantra . But day traders can get stopped out due to volatility
...........Indeed nothing turned out to be positive for rupee
Our 26-sept-2011 Blog
Domestic gold (dec futures) are certainly cheaper and attractive today --- no one requires our advise for that. But we would only caution to wait for consolidation signs rather than simply rushing in. Because after that one needs to only roll dec Longs into Jan and Jan Longs into feb.
..............After consolidation Dec gold touched 29000 very recently.
Our blog of 11-Nov-2011
Dec Gold : wait to buy below 28484 (shorting is risky)
....................Today`s(18-Nov) low is 28411
GOING INTO DECEMBER
$ -RUPEE :-- The central Bank may come in from time to time. They might even route Oil payments directly. Any sudden strength in Euro is bound to Pull USD-Rupee rate down. Hence better to stay away from this currency. Buying should be done on Dips & not in zone of 51.30 to 52
Gold:- 2012 January onwards, heralds a new Price discovery for Gold.
nothing seems positive for the rupee at the moment.buy of dips is the only mantra . But day traders can get stopped out due to volatility
Long NOV USD-INR at 50.2825
Stop: 50.07
Long DEC USD-INR at 50.5275
Stop: 50.29
Dec Gold : wait to buy below 28484 (shorting is risky)
Jeera:- Long dec Jeera @ 13710
Stop: prev. low: 13463
TP: 14300
Chana: Dec Chana :- target to buy at 3300
Gold:-
a breach of 1751-1755 $ band is going to thrust gold to zone of $1820-1840
Buy Dec gold at 27700
Stop: 27590
TP: 28100
Chana : Stops still intact. sentiment on charts weak
Adding one more short Dec chana @ 3514
Stop: 3570
TP: 3400
EUR-INR
Euro crossed 1.38 today. look like limited upside
Sold EUR-INR NOV @ 68.1775
Stop: 68.29
TP: 67.8225
JPY-INR
Sold JPY-INR NOV @ 63.4050
Stop: 63.74
TP: 62.85
USD-INR
Taking opportunity to go long NOV,DEC again
Long Nov @49.4425 stop 49.30 , TP 49.7625
Long Dec @ 49.6475 stop 49.50 , TP 50.25
TP done on nov-dec long USD-INR
Nov exited at 49.3125 (gain of 32.5 paise)
Dec exited at 49.5450 (gain of 32.75 paise)
Bought Dec.$-re at current level 49.2175
Stop 1.5 paise below day`s low of 49.1050
Bought Nov. $-re at current level 48.9875
Stop 1.5 paise below day`s low of 48.8650
Gold. stay away,
Sell Dec chana @ current levels of 3539
TP: 3400
Stop: 1 Re.above recent 3569 high
Our stops were triggered in USD-INR and Jeera(3T). But those were more than compensated
by Gain in Gold contract (1kg) . Our gold TP was triggered yesterday Indeed a fantastic trade.
as we captured the whole up move from 26536 to 26881
However, on this diwali we remain on sidelines as gold can mover either ways depending on European outcome Tomorrow. Also $/re is closed for next two days. Which means India gold can open Gap up/ down on Friday.
Our USD-INR view for rupee to weaken is still intact. INR is just moving on Euro news, fluctuations.
Trade for the day :- (intention to recoup yesterday`s stops)
Buy Nov $/re at current level of 49.9375
Stop: 49.75
Buy Dec $/re at curent Level of 50.1650
Stop: 49.95
By end of day we expect some dollar demand to come in due to market closure.
bought DEC USD-INR at present price 50.40
Stop: 50.25
Any dips in USD-INR are still a very good buy. Dec end target 52 (based on current scenario)
Existing Nov $/longs -- stops are still intact.
Gold Watching Dec gold for an exit. Its moved up almost immdiately after our advise of going Long.
Stop still intact.
Jeera :-Stop is still intact.
Bought one more nov $/re at current level 50.3575
stop: 50.05 --- Stop is very essential as market these days opens Gap down or Gap up
TP: Level will be seen later. as there is still a fair amount of dollar bulishness
Today it was bid up to 50.6275 after our Buy.
But some profit taking has happened ahead of the week-end.
today USD-INR opened above. 50 level.
This can potentially open the way right upto 52.
Bought Nov $/ Rupee @ curent price 50.3575
Stop loss: below yesterday low @ 50.05
TP: as of now sky is limit. Will communicate later.
Bought Dec Gold at current level 26536 For potential breach of previous 26881 resistance
Stop loss: 26200
Amongst Chana, Jeera, Soyabean. Jeera looks to be a promising bet
based on technical chart. It has found a good support
Bought Dec Jeera @ current level of 15100
Stop loss: 14800
TP: 15700
Inorder to recoup the morning stops losses, we have squared all the subsequent postions (one $/INR and two JPY/INR).
morning stop losses resulted in loss of : Rs.43 (-)
subsequent actions :
(1)short $/INR nov @ 50.05 squared at 49.8625 gain: Rs.18.75 (+)
(2)Short jpy/inr nov, dec @ 65.1050 and 65.23 squared at 64.84 & 65.1375 net gain: Rs. 357.50
Dec JPYINR has a huge bid-offer spread 64.9250-65.13
In coming days extreme volatility is expected.
Corrective steps after initial stop-losses have been right in re-assuming the balance.
As per anticipation the RBI has not come to sell in dollars.
The trade was based on premise that RBI would step in and intervene.
Our trades are stopped out.
We play again from the short side as we feel the move is already done for the day.But this time not relying on central bank`s presence ,hence placing tight stops.
Sold Nov USD-INR @ 50.05
tight stop: 50.16
TP: atleast 30 paise lower.
We now also resort to JPY-INR pair to recoup the losses.
Sold JPY INR nov contract @ 65.1050
Stop : 66.12
TP : 64.30
Sold JPY INR dec contract @ 65.23
stop: 66.25
TP: 64.60
Intra day view for USD-INR:- Rupee to recover from current levels though not in a significant manner but good enough to give some quick gains. However the stops have to be a bit away to avoid whip-saws
Sell Nov at current level 49.850
Stop loss : 50.05
Sell Oct at current level 49.62
Stop loss : 49.85
Stop loss : above
Take gain levels : equivalent of difference between entry and Stop loss.
Stops are sligthly away as short term panic can set in
GOLD: Turning attractive .But yet on the sidelines before buying.
In yesterday`s note we had mentioned that we were waiting to buy $/INR near day`s low
We could buy it at 48.95 , and exited at 49.05 -- a Quick trade intended to cover up stops of prior two trades
We exited dec long gold at 26810 (on way down) as the strength in international prices diminshed.
Two Short EUR-INR positions are still maintained.
now adding to Oct EUR-INR short @ 67.61
Stop loss: 68.65
TP: 65.55
existing short of 67.64 continues
waiting to Buy USD-nr for October near day`s low
Limit order to sell USD-INR remained unfilled and hence withdrawn.
Now Buying Oct USD-INR at current level of 49.1075
TP: 49.30
tight stop: 48.98
Also Buying OCT JPY-INR at curent level of 63.7950
TP: 64.45
Tight Stop: 64.49
Also Buying DEC Gold at current level of 26783
tight stop: 26673
TP: 27063
for the time being Physical buying of gold is seen to be less robust than gold ETF .
today`s trades
1) long Oct $/INR @ 49.06 trade done (2 hours ago)
TP done at Current Levels: 49.32
Stop was at 48.90
2) Limit order to Sell again OCT contract at 49.48
Stop loss : 49.65
TP : 49.10
3) Exited Both Short OCT JPY-INR at current levels of 64.22
4) Placed Limit order to Sell OCT again at 65.23. The pair has turned bullish again
and can rally if 64.48 is breached on spot basis
Sold OCT Eur-INR at 67.64 .
Stop loss 68.65
TP : 65.55
In our previous update (Oct 4) we had given 3 ideas. (long $/re, short Jpy/re , long gold).
Long $/re was exited through TP trigger. We continue to hold and monitor our JPY-INR shorts.
International Gold price at that time was $1624-- we had indicated $100 rise. $56 has already been achieved.(current price $1680) Basis this, we had given a recommendation to buy gold .
unfortunately due to extreme volatility in USD-INR, we were stopped out of Dec gold , But yet the target level of Rs.26733 has been visited today.
TP got done on October USD-INR long @ 49.60
thus exited Oct $-INR trade .
1)Adding on to JPY-INR shorts
Oct JPY-INR currently at 64.30-64.3150
Sold @ 64.30 , stop loss at 65.01 . TP : 62.60
Earlier trade on JPY-INR @ 65.38 : continues to be watched
2) Oct USD-INR currently at 49.2825 - 49.2850
Bought USD-INR @ 49.2850 , stop loss at 49.11. TP: @ 49.60
USD-INR : The UPTREND (depreciation) is still intact, it has been behaving very erratically .Hence we have to place tight stops.The risk reward ratio is 1:1 because of fear of intervention on higher side
India is closed tomorrow. any overseas event will lead to a knee jerk reaction in USD-INR on Friday.
It might open up with a gap of 20-30 paise, that`s what we are targetting in this trade.
3) Gold . international price currently at 1624 $. good support found at 1540-1580 zone.
Can potentially make base and rally 100$ from here.
So, Bought Dec gold : at curent price 26112 Rs.
stop Loss at international price $1580 /6 Rs. just below Oct price recent low of 25955 (as on 29-sept)
TP: at least recent high of 26,733
Oct eur-inr current level: 66.58 / 66.59
sell at current level 66.58
Stop loss: 66.93 just above day`s high
Take profit : 65.25
Oct-usd-inr
current level : 49.4050
action: Buy
stop: 49.19
TP: 49.83
in our 20-sept update we had mentioned that domestic gold is a good buy so long as internationally $1760 holds. accordingly we did exit dec long when this level was under threat.
The level breached and gold fell further almost $200.
Domestic gold (dec futures) are certainly cheaper and attractive today --- no one requires our advise for that. But we would only caution to wait for consolidation signs rather than simply rushing in. Because after that one needs to only roll dec Longs into Jan and Jan Longs into feb.
We are still holding and watching our yen-rupee trade
current JPY-INR Oct: 65.38
Sell JPY at current level.
Stop : 66.67
TP : 62.60
Very fair chance of central bank of Japan intervening Heavily
eur-inr OCT current 66.26 , day`s high 66.55
usd-inr OCT current 49.26 , day`s high 49.43
SELL oct eur-inr @ current level 66.26 15:09 IST
Stop loss : 66. 46
Take profit : 65.60
SELL oct usd-inr @ current level 49.26 15:09 IST
Stop loss: 49.44 (just above day`s high)
Take profit: 48.75
Sept Long $/Re was squared through limit order @ 48.29 (entry 48.0825)
Oct Long $/Re was squared through limit order @ 48.44 (entry 48.24)
Dec Long Gold was squared through market action @ Rs.28480 at 16:31 IST (entry 28036)
We remain square in view of important & unpredictable events in U.S tonight. Good night.
| new trade | | | | | | | | | |
| reco date | contract | curr price(bid) | curr price(ask) | buy | sell | at Level | take profit | stop loss | trade time |
| 20-Sep-11 | 28-Sep-11 | 48.08 | 48.0825 | 48.083 | no | current level | 48.29 | 47.79 | 16:34 IST |
| 20-Sep-11 | 27-Oct-11 | 48.235 | 48.24 | 48.24 | no | current level | 48.44 | 47.99 | 16:34 IST |
| | | | | | | | | |
| follow-up on earlier action | | | | | | | | |
| exit oct gold | | | | | | | | | |
| reco date | contract | buy | result | action 1 level | TP | TP date | trade time | | |
| 17-Sep-11 | 5-Oct | 27730 | bought | 27730 | 27772 | 20-Sep-11 | 18:38 | | |
| 17-Sep-11 | 5-Dec | 28036 | bought | 28036 | HOLD | HOLD | 18:38 | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| If international gold drops below $1760, exit dec gold | | | | | | |
| currently international gold is at 1778 | | | | | | | |
| reco date | contract | curr price(bid) | curr price(ask) | buy | sell | at Level | stop | TP |
| 20-Sep-11 | 28-Sep-11 | 48.08 | 48.0825 | 48.0825 | no | current level | 47.79 | 48.29 |
| 20-Sep-11 | 27-Oct-11 | 48.235 | 48.24 | 48.24 | no | current level | 47.99 | 48.44 |
USD-INR: Sept sell could not happen as market opened with a gap above our stop loss level.
USD-INR: Oct buy could not happen as our limit order not filled. We continue to run the limit order
EUR-INR: Bought sept contract on market open at 65 . day`s low 64.93 .stop intact . current level 65.28
take profit immediately
Gold : is up across the board Oct , dec gold up 1.28%, 1.48% respectively. Hold
oct:- prev. level 27730 / current: 28141
Dec-prev .level 28036 / current: 28445
| reco date | contract | curr price(bid) | curr price(ask) | buy | sell | at Level | take profit | stop loss | bias |
| $/inr | | | | | | | | | |
| 17-Sep-11 | 28-Sep-11 | 47.3375 | 47.35 | no | 47.3375 | on open next trading day | 47.06 | 47.56 | down |
| 17-Sep-11 | 27-Oct-11 | | | 47.2 | no | limit order | 48 | 46.59 | up |
| eur/inr | | | | | | | | | |
| 17-Sep-11 | 28-Sep-11 | 65.54 | 65.56 | 65.56 | no | open on next trading day | 66.2 | 64.8 | Up |
| gold | | | | | | | | | |
| 17-Sep-11 | gold($ spot) | 1811 | 1813.3 | 1813.3 | no | market open | 1860 | 1760 | Up |
| | | | | | | | | |
| so long as spot view does not change, buying on exchange for oct,dec contract is safe | | |
| current oct | 27748 | 5-oct 10 gms | | | | | | |
| current dec | 28046 | 5-dec 10 gms | | | | | | |
The government`s measures to counter inflation seem to contradict in itself.
Every interest rate hike is almost follwed by a hike in petrol ,diesel and LPG price.
petrol price has been invariably hiked on past three occassions latest hike being Rs.3.18
To compound the situation further INR has been depreciating. Between 30-june till date INR has depreciated almost 7%
Despite all rate hikes, inflation is still above comfort zone. And We believe another 75- 100 baiss points rate hike are still on the cards
In last few days international gold prices have come off from $ 1920 to $1761 in 10 days.
What happened ?
To understand that -- first let`s agree that gold was above 1900 because of uncertainty about greece and euro zone re-action to it. So markets were Risk-off thus buying into gold.
European central bank along with a co-operation from US,UK,Swiss assured dollar availability
and ample liquidity into the european markets. This led to Risk-on climate , and the long speculators did some profit taking -- essentially reducing the weight before any further trickle of news from Europe.
Gold in Indian Rupees too reacted, The kotak gold fund has come off from august high of 2782Rs./ gram to close this week at 2647.60 Rs.
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